Tuesday 2 August 2011

PNG LNG still stronger on the books

by Blair Price

DESPITE a strong Australian dollar adding up to 10% to capital expenditure on the $US15 billion PNG LNG project, cost inflation on the project is expected to be lower than that faced by Australian rivals.

This week Oil Search managing director Peter Botten said the costs and schedule of project components often fluctuated through development but operator ExxonMobil was managing them. 

"One focus area remains exchange rate exposure to the Australian dollar," Botten said. 

The Aussie dollar has hit above $US1.10 this week and there are predictions it could even climb beyond $US1.20 as the mining boom continues. 

In a report on Oil Search, Macquarie Private Wealth said spending in Aussie dollars accounted for about 20% of the overall PNG LNG budget.

On the assumption that the project was sanctioned when one Australian dollar equated to US70c, MPW said less than 10% would be added to overall project costs if the Aussie dollar instead remained at $US1.05 for the rest of development. 

"This is modest in the context of typical cost inflation we have seen at Australian projects over recent years," MPW said. 

Outside of an estimated 10% cost overrun, MPW is also forecasting a six-month delay to first PNG LNG cargoes to the last quarter of 2014.

But it noted this timing was still competitive versus rival Australian gas projects.

Deutsche Bank has previously forecast that PNG LNG's capex would reach $US17.3 billion, about 13% above the initial $15 billion target of the joint venture. 

MPW said project operator Exxon was making good overall progress towards a 2014 start-up and set a 12-month price target of $A9.10 on Oil Search shares.

This assessment also considered the Papua New Guinean oil producer's forthcoming well drilling program.

Partners in PNG LNG include ExxonMobil (33.2%), Oil Search (29%), the PNG government's Independent Public Business Corporation (16.6%), Santos (13.5%), Nippon Oil (4.7%), the state-owned Minerals Resource Development Company (2.8%) and Petromin (0.2%).

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